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[Yarn market is "under the enem]
Release date:[2020/8/26] Is reading[20]次

In the second half of August, the current life of China’s spinning enterprises is sad. It is related to China’s textile structure. The front end is large and the back end is small. The yarn link is overcapacity and the homogeneity is relatively serious. The price has rebounded by about 1,000 yuan/ton, but the price of cotton yarn has not improved due to fierce competition, causing the entire spinning link to be at a loss or flat. The back-end printing and dyeing process has shortcomings due to environmental protection control in the past two years. As of August 20, CY C32S pure cotton yarn closed at RMB 18,440/ton, which was another RMB 50/ton from last week.

   Since the month of Zheng Mian’s main contract, Zheng Mian has always maintained around 12,800 yuan/ton. On the spot side, the CC3128B cotton index closed at RMB 12,498/ton as of August 20, an increase of RMB 92/ton from last week. One reason for this is that the new crown epidemic in Xinjiang since mid-July has led to a sharp decline in lint road shipments (most of the trucks in southern Xinjiang have been suspended), and the impact on railway shipments is not small. Therefore, Xinjiang Cotton supply is tight, and quotations have risen accordingly; secondly, Chinese companies' resumption of purchasing 2020/21 U.S. cotton shows that the first phase of the Sino-U.S. trade agreement has not been undermined, which enhances investor confidence and the textile and apparel industry is gaining momentum; the three reserve cotton wheels The daily delivery rate of production has continued to maintain 100%, and traders have increased prices and bidding enthusiasm, indicating that the resumption of production and production and sales of the cotton textile and clothing industries are in a state of continuous recovery, and the industry chain situation continues to improve. However, in the face of spinning companies that continue to rise in raw materials and the prices of finished products are weak, it is not easy to be so "in the face". According to calculations, as of August 20, the theoretical profit and loss of textile enterprises has fallen to more than -1000 yuan/ton. In the face of such a dangerous situation, textile enterprises have only two options, either losing money to ensure employment, or reducing production and layoffs. It is expected that most large and medium-sized textile companies will still adopt the first approach.

   The national yarn inventory has declined recently, but it is still at a historical high. As of August 20, the China Yarn Inventory Index closed at 31.7 days, 0.5 days from the same period last week. However, the start-up is maintained at a low level, which is generally maintained at about 48%. Some textile enterprises have adopted appropriate measures to limit production, and the three shifts have been converted into two shifts. Specifically, the cost of industrial electricity in different time periods is different. There are peaks and troughs and normal time periods. The trough is only three or four cents, the normal time period is seven or eight cents, and the peak time is more than one yuan, so companies stop work at the peak. , Make full use of the trough time period to reduce costs. This also shows that under the situation of weak downswing and meager corporate profits, companies have used energy conservation to the extreme. On the other hand, it is still better to go with low-count yarns at the moment, and those medium and large-scale spinning enterprises that "occupies" and closed down small-scale spinning enterprises have begun to gradually use combing equipment to manufacture low-count yarns, although the increase of 200-400 yuan/ton Cost, but the yarn tends to show "low count and high cost". It can also be seen that in addition to price, yarn mills are also fiercely fighting for quality to attract customers.

   As for the weaving mills, due to the accumulation of inventory in the weaving mills, it is common for weaving mills to reduce production and stop production and reduce output. Entering mid-to-late August, with the gradual increase in orders from weaving mills in some areas, weaving mill inventory began to sell. However, because the overall order volume was lower than in previous years, the weaving factory started to recover slowly, and the operating rate was lower than the same period in previous years. However, under the influence of the new crown epidemic this year, the recovery is expected to weaken, the order recovery may be affected to some extent, and domestic orders cannot meet the supply of pure cotton grey cloth, so the shipment of pure cotton grey cloth is expected to increase in September. But the magnitude is unpredictable.

Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is about to arrive, it is expected that the "fineness" will certainly not be compared with previous years. The main reasons are the following: First, the new crown epidemic is like a "ghost", and the second outbreak in the autumn and winter of 2020 seems inevitable. Textile and apparel retailers and purchasing companies in Europe, America, Japan, South Korea and other countries are very cautious about placing orders in the spring and summer of 2021. Domestic companies are also worried about replicating the market in the first half of 2020 (spring orders will be converted into inventory if they are not on the market); the second is the United States in November Before the presidential election, uncertainties in Sino-US relations have continued to increase. The Trump administration has become increasingly aggressive and aggressive in its China policy, ranging from "sweeping the pot" of the epidemic to making irresponsible remarks on the Hong Kong version of the national security law. Selling weapons to Taiwan and visiting Taiwan by important officials, tearing off their camouflage and suppressing Chinese high-tech enterprises, etc., Sino-US relations have reached a critical period of "no worst, only worse". Therefore, it is important for China’s textiles and clothing to Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. The export of developed countries has cast a shadow; third, considering that China’s economy is currently stable and good, long-term good, and high-quality development, it is very likely that measures such as interest rate cuts and government fiscal stimulus will not be introduced, and they are still asymmetrical. Cut interest rates and provide precise support to small, medium and micro enterprises. In the second half of 2020, the central bank's monetary policy may be limitedly loose. Flood irrigation will be changed to precise drip irrigation, and credit support for small, medium and micro enterprises may be tightened. Therefore, textile and clothing enterprises make their efforts in the domestic market and do a good job of "internal circulation" are the basic conditions for survival and development. It’s not a saying, foreign trade does not go to domestic sales, and domestic sales cannot be reduced or stopped.

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